2008/09 Predictions - Part three
Hibernian
Hibs’ early exit from the now defunct Intertoto Cup a few weeks back was followed by a terrible pre-season campaign. The team failed to score in their first six matches, including the two-legged tie against Swedish outfit Elfsborg. That run consisted of a 2-0 defeat to Second Division Cowdenbeath and a 3-0 defeat to First Division Clyde. The goals finally came when Steven Fletcher scored a double to put Hibs two nil up against Middlesbrough, a match they went on to lose by three goals to two.
I think that this season will be a tough one for Mixu Paatelainen, who has a hard job ahead of him to emulate the entertainment and relative success the team provided and enjoyed under the guidance of Tony Mowbray. Some players Paatelainen has signed, like David van Zanten, John Rankin and Martin Canning, have not improved the squad and some players he inherited are not too much better. Millions of pounds have been brought into the club through the transfers of Scott Brown, Kevin Thomson and Gary O’Conner to name a few, but little has been spent on replacements.
Despite this there is still some quality left in the Hibs squad. Steven Fletcher, who earned his first cap earlier in the year, will score goals if given the service and Dean Shiels has enjoyed regular first team football since Paatelainen’s appointment. He was in great form for the second half of last season, even though the manager may not have quite found his best position yet.
After a shaky start to his Hibs career, defender Chris Hogg has flourished and Kevin McCann and Lewis Stevenson have potential, even if they have not progressed as much as some would have liked. Merouane Zemmama is another who will be an important player for Hibs this season after being kept out of the team for much of last season due to injury.
Following an impressive display as a trialist against Barcelona, Steven Tichot won a deal at Eater Road and could be the answer to the departure of fellow Frenchman Guillaume Beuzelin to Coventry under freedom of contract. Another player who could sign is Fabio Yantorno, the best player by a fair bit in the Gretna team last season until he suffered a knee ligament injury in January that has kept him out since.
Only last week Paatelainen went public with comments regarding his current squad, claiming around nine players are ‘not good enough’ for Hibs and that a clearout was in order. Why did it take him until one week before the season started to notice this? A poor start would put the boss under pressure and with little money to spend. How many players will he be able to bring in of required quality with the little money that is being made available to him?
Prediction: 7th
Inverness Caley Thistle
Team spirit and hard work has aided Caley’s rise, more than anything else, since their inception into the Scottish Football League in 1994. The Highlanders have never been ones to splash too much cash or break a tight wage structure.
The exception to this of course is Marius Niculae. The Romanian international, who arrived last summer and went on to be the clubs top scorer last season with ten, played for his country during Euro 2008 and Inverness have subsequently cashed in on him, receiving around £400k for his move to Dinamo Bucharest.
Niculae will be sorely missed this season, and with the departures of Graeme Bayne to Dunfermline, and Denis Wyness to St. Mirren, the club have a striker crisis on its hands. This leaves only Rory McAllister and Andrew Barrowman to choose from. Barrowman is stepping up two divisions, after moving from Ross County, and Rory McAllister has not done much to inspire confidence.
What replacements manager Craig Brewster brings in could be the difference to whether Inverness will be in the SPL next season or not. Adam Rooney and Calum Elliot have been linked with loan moves to the Caledonian Stadium; however, the speculation regarding the two have gone on for a while now and I am not sure whether joining Caley would be a good move for Elliot in this stage of his career.
Midfielders Don Cowie and Ian Black are decent players who can turn it on occasions but this will not be enough for the Highlanders to be considered a force to be reckoned with. They are too week in too many other areas in the tam - defence and in goal, as well as up front - to finish any higher than tenth place.
Another factor in the outcome in their season will be how Hamilton cope with promotion. Even if Inverness do not go down this time, I believe it will happen at some point in the next few seasons. Craig Brewster has not had the best of times since he returned for his second spell as boss and I think he will be another that will find himself under pressure by the end of the year.
Prediction: 12th
Kilmarnock
Another club that could have a problem scoring goals this season is Kilmarnock. Forwards Gary Wales, Paul Dalglish and Paul Di Giacomo have all left the club and new signing Allan Russell has been ruled out by injury for around six weeks leaving just fellow new recruit Connor Sammon and David Fernandez, who has struggled both with injury and hitting form over the last season, as options in attack. The team also recently lost out on Steve Lovell, who has agreed to join Falkirk instead.
The Ayrshire club had an awful time with injuries last season, which led them to their worst league finish since Jim Jefferies became manager in 2002. At one point during the season the squad was decimated, leaving Jefferies with only twelve fit first team players for one match. Due to Gretna being in league last season Kilmarnock were never in trouble of being relegated and this gave the Killie boss the chance to give some of his younger players some valuable first team experience. Craig Bryson, Ryan O’Leary and Iain Flannigan should all be better players after their extended runs in the first team due to this injury crisis and there will be more competition for places as a result.
Retaining the services of Mehdi Taouil will aid Kilmarnock as they aim to secure a better finish than last season’s 11th, although probably not too much better. The Moroccan adds some much needed flair to the Killie side and the industrious Gavin Skelton, who was one of Gretna’s top performers last season, will also add to the squad.
One area where they are quite strong is at the back. Simon Ford and Frazer Wright may not be the most skilful players but they are solid centre halves. Ryan O’Leary looks a prospect and they have the experience of Martyn Corrigan and Grant Murray to add to this. Left back and captain Gary Hay, another who struggled with injury last term, is also in the latter stages of his career and is a key part of the Kilmarnock side.
If Kilmarnock were to suffer only half the injuries they were subject to last year, they should be stronger, although missing out on Steve Lovell is a real blow. As a result they will still struggle for goals and this will probably mean that they again fail to make the top six this season.
Prediction: 9th
