2008/09 Predictions - Part four
Motherwell
After turning down Hearts to remain at Motherwell, albeit with an improved contract, manager Mark McGhee now faces the uphill battle of trying to emulate his team’s achievements of last season. The Fir Park side gained entry into this year’s UEFA Cup with their 3rd place finish but their success of the previous campaign could contribute to their downfall this time.
It was a remarkable turnaround for a team who were involved in a relegation battle the previous season, only ensuring survival on the final day. With an extremely thin squad this time, and pressure building up from expectation, I think Motherwell will struggle this year. They have been one of the least active teams in the transfer market and have lost one of last season’s stars Ross McCormack on a free to Cardiff City.
McGhee made clear his frustrations with regards to recruiting players during the close season. No more so than when the club were unable to bring John Kennedy in from Celtic on-loan, even though they player himself preferred a move to Fir Park over his eventual destination Norwich. Another couple of defenders are surely a priority for the Motherwell boss after the long-term injury to Brian McLean and Simon Lappin’s return to Norwich after his loan spell.
When their European campaign kicks off, the Saturday-Thursday-Sunday-Wednesday-Saturday, fixtures caused by being involved in three different competitions will hit Motherwell hard unless they add more players. If they manage to qualify for the group stage of the UEFA Cup this year, that will guarantee them four more matches and will extend their European endeavour at least to Christmas.
Whether McGhee sticks with his attacking 4-3-3 formation that brought success last year, but left them vulnerable at the back, or whether he reverts to a more stable 4-4-2 or even a more defensive minded 4-5-1 will be interesting to see. Whatever formation he opts for, McGhee has two quality strikers in David Clarkson and Chris Porter. But as they haven’t replaced McCormack and if one of these were to be unavailable for whatever reason, they have very little as back-up.
With their small squad and their unwillingness to splash the cash, which actually shows some prudence - it wasn’t so long ago Motherwell were in administration -, even if Motherwell do follow Rangers’ lead and fall at the first hurdle in Europe they will still struggle to finish in the top six of the SPL.
Prediction: 8th
Rangers
After defending their way to three cup finals and narrowly missing out on the league I really expected Rangers to add a bit of flair to their side this term; which was about all they lacked last season. They have been unlucky with injuries, especially in the wings and manager Walter Smith seems to have blown the majority of his budget on strikers, leaving him with eight on the books, and also leaving him short in other areas. This added to the team crashing out of Europe at the first attempt means there will be very little money to spend.
It will be interesting to see if losing out on the financial windfall the Champions League brings will hinder or aid their title challenge this season. There will be less money to spend, but on the other hand it means the team can concentrate on the SPL and not have to worry about postponing matches against St. Mirren four days before they travel to face a top European side. One option for Rangers would be to sell Carlos Cuellar, a player that could potentially generate a similar amount of money to what they have lost out on after their defeat to FBK Kaunas this week.
This would weaken their central defence but after the capture Madjid Bougherra, the funds raised from selling Cuellar would allow Rangers to add to their midfield with someone like Steve Davis, a player they have attempted to sign since last season’s loan deal ended. They would also benefit from signing a right back and one or two wide men. With injuries to Chris Burke, DaMarcus Beasley and Steven Naismith they have virtually no-one who naturally plays wide. Nacho Novo is about the only fit player who can actually play effectively as a winger.
Rangers were under pressure to win league before they exited the Champions League on Wednesday night and they are under even more pressure to do so now. With many players looking drained this early in the season, added to the poor pre-season form of goalkeeper Allan McGregor, after recovering from long-term injury, the Ibrox side will find it difficult to mount a serious title challenge this year.
Prediction: 2nd
St Mirren
Steady progress has been made by St Mirren under the guidance of manager Gus MacPherson over the last two years. Since gaining promotion, the Paisley club have survived relegation with 11th, and more recently, 10th placed finishes. Although Gretna’s awful time in the SPL, coupled with Kilmarnock’s squad being decimated by injury, probably made last season a little easier than it should have been.
MacPherson has added well to his squad but ambitions of reaching the top six are overly optimistic. Tom Brighton, Steven Robb and Jack Ross are all useful acquisitions but the signing of Dennis Wyness may require justification come the end of season; and I don’t know too much about latest recruit Antonio Guerao Mayoral Tonet. Retaining the services of Franco Miranda will aid the team this year and they should have enough in them to survive once again.
Goals were St Mirren’s biggest problem last season and Craig Dargo could be a big player this time round. After a poor start to his Saints career, problems with injury ruled him out for half of last term but even when he did gain full fitness, he still failed to be as potent as he was in an Inverness shirt.
St Mirren hit some form during the second half of last season and much of this was down to the arrival of Andy Dorman in January; an inspired signing by Gus MacPherson. However, if Dorman continues his form into this season, I would be surprised if he wasn’t snapped up by another club, either before the end of the current transfer window ends, or the following one in January. His contract expires next summer and if he fails to renew it, it would not take much of a bid to take him away from Love Street.
It is a disappointment that St Mirren will not be kicking off their campaign at their new stadium. The completion date has already been put back and a further delay looks on the cards. Moving mid-season could disrupt the side, especially if they get their season off to a sound start. They have had a decent home record over the last year and obviously want to improve but a move to a new home could hinder this.
Survival has been the key word for the Paisley club since their promotion two years ago and many supporters will be expecting this to be the time the club to push on and improve their league position, possibly even move into the top six, but I don’t think this will happen. St Mirren may just get dragged into another relegation battle but they should have enough in their side to pull away to safety once more.
Prediction: 10th
